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Token Flow Calculator
Map your real cost structure. Price from unit economics, not benchmarks.
From the Line of Sight article: The New Math of AI →
Warning: Margin Negative
0.0% Gross Margin
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Token Flow
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Cost Structure
API costs vary by model tier, provider, and task type. Reasoning-heavy and long-context tasks cost significantly more per token than standard completions. Enter the blended rate across your actual model mix for accuracy.
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Pricing
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Unit Economics
API Cost / Credit
$0.0075
raw token cost only
Total Cost / Credit
$0.0085
API + infrastructure
Sale Price / Credit
$0.0050
your current price
Gross Margin on Credits
Negative
Losing money per credit
Price for 60% Margin
$0.0213
↑ raise by $0.0163
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Margin Waterfall (per 1,000 credits)
Revenue
+$5.000
API Tokens
$-7.500
Infra Overhead
$-1.000
Gross Profit
$-3.500
Revenue per 1k credits: $5.00Cost to serve: $8.50Gross profit: $-3.50
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LTV:CAC Matrix by Churn Rate
At $40/mo avg revenue · 0.0% gross margin · Max CAC = LTV / 3 for 3:1 ratio
| Annual Churn | Customer LTV | Max CAC (3:1) | CAC Cushion | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | $0.00 | $0.00 | Difficult | |
| 10% | $0.00 | $0.00 | Difficult | |
| 15% | $0.00 | $0.00 | Difficult | |
| 20% ◀ | $0.00 | $0.00 | Difficult | |
| 25% | $0.00 | $0.00 | Difficult | |
| 30% | $0.00 | $0.00 | Difficult |
◀ = Reference baseline. Enterprise SaaS typically runs 5-10% annual churn. SMB products commonly run 25-40%. Apply the rate that matches your actual go-to-market motion.
Note: LTV is calculated from gross margin. This overstates true LTV because it does not account for sales, marketing, and G&A costs below the gross margin line. Use this as a directional signal, not a CFO-ready number.
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Pricing Diagnosis
✗You are losing $0.0035 per credit. Raise price to $0.0213 to reach 60% margin, or reduce token cost per credit through model optimization or caching.
Breakeven analysis: At $40/mo subscription, customer must consume 8,000 credits to cover your costs of $68.00. Net per account at breakeven: $-28.00/mo.
Line of Sight · Token Flow Calculator · Based on State of AI, Bessemer Venture Partners (2025) & Ibbaka Credit Pricing Guide (2025)
All values are illustrative models based on public pricing data and industry benchmarks.
Infrastructure overhead is modeled as a fixed per-credit input. At high volume, infra cost as a percentage of inference typically compresses. This model is designed for early-stage cost architecture, not at-scale optimization.
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